Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 14.656555 16.721884 18.934452 21.476447 24.311449 27.371133 30.918229
2025-09-21 11.361779 14.133176 17.324385 21.251964 25.935587 31.320789 37.958852
2025-09-28 9.264634 12.207425 15.761201 20.334747 26.026796 32.837076 41.556915
2025-10-05 8.314827 11.516087 15.543490 20.926964 27.871725 36.459802 47.804823
2025-10-12 7.527506 10.892940 15.280982 21.342090 29.404795 39.658493 53.564350
2025-10-19 6.677635 10.077090 14.662758 21.195613 30.138565 41.810445 58.026450
2025-10-26 5.948612 9.339059 14.060637 20.983009 30.712769 43.716157 62.182569
2025-11-02 5.401591 8.798885 13.671891 21.007483 31.569644 45.992122 66.882520
2025-11-09 4.971786 8.384668 13.417286 21.181280 32.611593 48.529878 72.005782
2025-11-16 4.530862 7.907283 13.023197 21.106747 33.266552 50.524818 76.419603
2025-11-23 4.115235 7.427797 12.582039 20.917550 33.719596 52.222811 80.446328
2025-11-30 3.818820 7.112440 12.365009 21.043293 34.627766 54.589696 85.496000
2025-12-07 3.640716 6.985559 12.445350 21.649034 36.313980 58.197555 92.549787
2025-12-14 3.314825 6.574111 12.032879 21.440233 36.723304 59.913728 96.865266
2025-12-21 2.893747 5.950742 11.216272 20.510037 35.926887 59.742421 98.298446
2025-12-28 2.778979 5.874581 11.321093 21.108827 37.600723 63.418694 105.712839
2026-01-04 2.643575 5.746172 11.322818 21.526332 38.988117 66.687748 112.596323
2026-01-11 2.433662 5.454022 11.010961 21.379020 39.422922 68.455439 117.178086
2026-01-18 2.233757 5.161762 10.675638 21.164716 39.724342 70.006359 121.451370
2026-01-25 2.083688 4.955671 10.483128 21.189408 40.426309 72.219819 126.843027
2026-02-01 1.964821 4.802857 10.378897 21.364506 41.389605 74.886224 133.041165
2026-02-08 1.825612 4.592920 10.148606 21.289415 41.902444 76.812797 138.078037
2026-02-15 1.685124 4.365988 9.867514 21.098786 42.193329 78.366115 142.533256